{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Seestar Stability Analysis\n", "\n", "This notebook is generated from the AstroActive Results Gallery research dataset. It is self-contained: the derived JSON data is embedded below so the notebook can be downloaded and run without a companion CSV.\n", "\n", "Current scope: historic observations for the current study targets plus a controlled one-night experiment slice.\n", "\n", "Source summary: M81: 51 rows from data-analysis-M81.csv; M101: 20 rows from data-analysis-M101.csv; M16: 28 rows from data-analysis-M16.csv; M51: 24 rows from data-analysis-M51.csv; M12: 2 rows from data-analysis-M12.csv; M13: 1 rows from data-analysis-M13.csv\n", "\n", "Controlled run: 8 rows from data-analysis-20260615.csv\n", "\n", "Observation range: 2026-02-07 to 2026-06-07 (120 days)." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Model Framing\n", "\n", "The response variable here is the historic dropped-frame proxy:\n", "\n", "```\n", "elapsed_capacity_subs = floor(total_elapsed_seconds / sub_length_seconds)\n", "dropped_sub_estimate = max(0, elapsed_capacity_subs - sub_count)\n", "elapsed_drop_rate = dropped_sub_estimate / elapsed_capacity_subs\n", "```\n", "\n", "For the public predictor screen, each predictor is fit in a small age-controlled model:\n", "\n", "```\n", "elapsed_drop_rate ~ days_before_latest_observation + predictor\n", "```\n", "\n", "`days_before_latest_observation` is a control term, not a science predictor. It is intended to soak up era effects such as older firmware, less-practiced polar alignment, and earlier tripod/setup stability." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "# If your notebook environment is missing packages, run:\n", "# %pip install pandas numpy matplotlib statsmodels\n", "\n", "import json\n", "import math\n", "\n", "import numpy as np\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "\n", "try:\n", " import statsmodels.api as sm\n", "except ImportError:\n", " sm = None\n", "\n", "DATA_JSON = r'''{\n", " \"generatedAt\": \"2026-06-17T02:08:05.152Z\",\n", " \"draftState\": \"Historic target export plus controlled one-night experiment rows.\",\n", " \"protocol\": {\n", " \"plannedTargets\": 4,\n", " \"plannedDurationMinutesPerTarget\": 60,\n", " \"plannedDevices\": \"Both Seestar telescopes\",\n", " \"currentScope\": \"Historic observations for the current study targets plus a controlled one-night experiment slice\",\n", " \"communityReportTargets\": [\n", " \"M81\",\n", " \"M101\",\n", " \"M13\",\n", " \"M12\"\n", " ],\n", " \"smallSampleContext\": \"M13 and M12 are retained even with sparse historic coverage because they are part of the community member's research target set.\",\n", " \"regressionControl\": \"Predictor ranking controls for daysBeforeLatestObservation so older firmware, setup stability, and polar-alignment skill trends are not ranked as science predictors.\"\n", " },\n", " \"sources\": [\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"m81\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M81\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-M81.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 51\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"m101\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M101\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-M101.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 20\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"m16\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M16\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-M16.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 28\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"m51\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M51\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Whirlpool Galaxy\",\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-M51.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 24\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"m12\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M12\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-M12.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 2\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"m13\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M13\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-M13.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 1\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"controlledSource\": {\n", " \"sourceFile\": \"data-analysis-20260615.csv\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 8\n", " },\n", " \"summary\": {\n", " \"rowCount\": 126,\n", " \"targetCount\": 6,\n", " \"deviceCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-07\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"latestObservationDate\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"observationSpanDays\": 120,\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 17474,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 117.88,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.758,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.231,\n", " \"altitudeRows\": 91,\n", " \"driftRows\": 90,\n", " \"weatherRows\": 94,\n", " \"snrRows\": 121,\n", " \"skyRows\": 94,\n", " \"moonRows\": 47\n", " },\n", " \"coverage\": [\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"subCount\",\n", " \"label\": \"Captured subs\",\n", " \"count\": 126,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"subLengthSeconds\",\n", " \"label\": \"Sub length\",\n", " \"count\": 126,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"totalElapsedSeconds\",\n", " \"label\": \"Elapsed window\",\n", " \"count\": 126,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"totalIntegrationSeconds\",\n", " \"label\": \"Integration\",\n", " \"count\": 126,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"label\": \"Days before newest row\",\n", " \"count\": 126,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"meanAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Mean altitude\",\n", " \"count\": 91,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.722\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"targetDeclinationDeg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Target declination\",\n", " \"count\": 126,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"label\": \"Reported drift\",\n", " \"count\": 90,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.714\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"label\": \"Reported jitter\",\n", " \"count\": 90,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.714\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"label\": \"Observed drift\",\n", " \"count\": 72,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.571\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"avgStackedSnr\",\n", " \"label\": \"Avg stacked SNR\",\n", " \"count\": 121,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.96\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"avgStackedCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"label\": \"Avg stacked coverage\",\n", " \"count\": 121,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.96\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Cloud cover\",\n", " \"count\": 94,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.746\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"humidityPercentAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Humidity\",\n", " \"count\": 94,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.746\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Dew point spread\",\n", " \"count\": 94,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.746\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"windSpeedKmhAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Wind speed\",\n", " \"count\": 94,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.746\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"label\": \"Wind gust\",\n", " \"count\": 94,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.746\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\",\n", " \"label\": \"Site sky brightness\",\n", " \"count\": 94,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.746\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Modeled sky brightness\",\n", " \"count\": 91,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.722\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Moon separation\",\n", " \"count\": 47,\n", " \"total\": 126,\n", " \"percent\": 0.373\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"targetSummaries\": [\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M101\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 20,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-07\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 2701,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 18.42,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 60.6,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 47.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.746,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.249,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 70.43,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.051,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 5.179,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M81\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 51,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-07\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 5282,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 40.37,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 59.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 39,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.775,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.19,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 50.77,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.091,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 3.773,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M51\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Whirlpool Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Whirlpool Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 24,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-08\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-05-30\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 4850,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 22.99,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 78.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 44.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.622,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.377,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 64.56,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.13,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 5.141,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M16\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"16\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 28,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-26\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-06\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 4391,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 34.02,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 103.3,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 65.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.795,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.202,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 31.51,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.053,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 2.922,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M12\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12 (M12)\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-05\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 168,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 1.4,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 52.9,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 42,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.802,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.193,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 40.27,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.183,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 5.322,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M13\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 82,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.68,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 56.9,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 41,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.721,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.274,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 77.55,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.619,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 23.86,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"deviceSummaries\": [\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"16\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 97,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-07\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-05\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 14088,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 85.03,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 68.3,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 44.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.711,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.285,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 53.11,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.079,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 4.919,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"16\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 29,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-04-08\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 3386,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 32.85,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 68.8,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 52.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.882,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.114,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 34.03,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.08,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 3.826,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"targetDeviceSummaries\": [\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M101 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 17,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-07\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 2498,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 16.72,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 66.4,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 48,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.718,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.282,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 59.46,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.066,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 5.439,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M81 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 40,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-07\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-05\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 4027,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 30.09,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58.5,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 37.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.739,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.239,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 50.43,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.077,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 3.387,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M51 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Whirlpool Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Whirlpool Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 24,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-08\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-05-30\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 4850,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 22.99,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 78.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 44.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.622,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.377,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 64.56,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.13,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 5.141,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M16 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"16\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 14,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-02-26\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-04-22\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 2550,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 13.87,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 20,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 103.3,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 60.9,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.63,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.369,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 34.04,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.305,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 6.524,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M16 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Eagle Nebula\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"16\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 14,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-04-08\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-06\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 1841,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 20.15,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 106.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 92,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.881,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.114,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 30.27,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.053,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 2.922,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M101 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 3,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-04-09\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-04-19\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 203,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 1.69,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 52,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 46.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.895,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.097,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 74.08,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 0,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M81 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 11,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-04-09\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 1255,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 10.28,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 68.8,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 48.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.878,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.116,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 51.5,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.193,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 4.264,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M12 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12 (M12)\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 81,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.68,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 57,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 40.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.711,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.283,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 46.87,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.174,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 6.578,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M13 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-01\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 82,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.68,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 56.9,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 41,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.721,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.274,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 77.55,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.619,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 23.86,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M12 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12 (M12)\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-05\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-05\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 87,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.73,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 48.7,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 43.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.893,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.103,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 33.68,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.191,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 4.066,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"controlledSummary\": {\n", " \"rowCount\": 8,\n", " \"targetCount\": 4,\n", " \"deviceCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"latestObservationDate\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 728,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 6.07,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.81,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.186,\n", " \"altitudeRows\": 8,\n", " \"driftRows\": 8,\n", " \"jitterRows\": 8,\n", " \"weatherRows\": 8,\n", " \"snrRows\": 7,\n", " \"skyRows\": 8,\n", " \"moonRows\": 0\n", " },\n", " \"controlledCoverage\": [\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"subCount\",\n", " \"label\": \"Captured subs\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"subLengthSeconds\",\n", " \"label\": \"Sub length\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"totalElapsedSeconds\",\n", " \"label\": \"Elapsed window\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"totalIntegrationSeconds\",\n", " \"label\": \"Integration\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"label\": \"Days before newest row\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"meanAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Mean altitude\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"targetDeclinationDeg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Target declination\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"label\": \"Reported drift\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"label\": \"Reported jitter\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"label\": \"Observed drift\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"avgStackedSnr\",\n", " \"label\": \"Avg stacked SNR\",\n", " \"count\": 7,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 0.875\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"avgStackedCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"label\": \"Avg stacked coverage\",\n", " \"count\": 7,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 0.875\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Cloud cover\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"humidityPercentAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Humidity\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Dew point spread\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"windSpeedKmhAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Wind speed\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"label\": \"Wind gust\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\",\n", " \"label\": \"Site sky brightness\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Modeled sky brightness\",\n", " \"count\": 8,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Moon separation\",\n", " \"count\": 0,\n", " \"total\": 8,\n", " \"percent\": 0\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"controlledTargetSummaries\": [\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M101\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 201,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 1.68,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 50.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.866,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.13,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 52.34,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.108,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 4.432,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M12\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12 (M12)\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 154,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 1.28,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 57.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 38.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.675,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.325,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 40.18,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 1.148,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 34.023,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M13\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 184,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 1.53,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 57.8,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 46,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.795,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.204,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 55.76,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.059,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 2.131,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M81\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 2,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 189,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 1.58,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 47.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.815,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.182,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 34.16,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 1.053,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 35.58,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\",\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"controlledDeviceSummaries\": [\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 4,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 376,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 3.13,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 48.3,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.831,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.168,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 46.29,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.75,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 20.109,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 4,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 352,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 2.93,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 57.7,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 44.8,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.774,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.222,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 46.24,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.13,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 5.294,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"controlledTargetDeviceSummaries\": [\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M101 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 103,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.86,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 51.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.886,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.112,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 52.36,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.067,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 2.833,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M12 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12 (M12)\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 80,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.67,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 40,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.689,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.31,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 40.22,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 1.433,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 37.384,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M13 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 103,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.86,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58.1,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 51.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.886,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.112,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 55.87,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.036,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 1.415,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M81 / S30\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 90,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.75,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 45,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.775,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.224,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 34.18,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 1.994,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 66.604,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S30\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M101 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Pinwheel Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 98,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.82,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 58,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 49,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.845,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.148,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 52.32,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.149,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 6.031,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M12 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Messier 12 (M12)\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Messier 12\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 74,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.62,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 56,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 37,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.661,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.339,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 40.15,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.863,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 30.661,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M13 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Hercules Globular Cluster\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": \"13\",\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 81,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.68,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 57.6,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 40.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.703,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.296,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 55.66,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.081,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 2.846,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"group\": \"M81 / S50\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"rowCount\": 1,\n", " \"dateStart\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"dateEnd\": \"2026-06-15\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\": 99,\n", " \"integrationHours\": 0.83,\n", " \"medianSubLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"medianElapsedMinutes\": 57.9,\n", " \"medianIntegrationMinutes\": 49.5,\n", " \"medianCaptureEfficiency\": 0.855,\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\": 0.139,\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\": 34.14,\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\": 0.111,\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\": 4.556,\n", " \"devices\": [\n", " \"S50\"\n", " ]\n", " }\n", " ],\n", " \"predictorScreens\": [\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"deviceS30\",\n", " \"label\": \"Device is Seestar S30\",\n", " \"group\": \"Equipment and capture\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 126,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": -0.128296,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.002432,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.164663,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": -0.2952,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.336,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.2572,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.0788,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.000211,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.001\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with less elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 0,\n", " \"xMax\": 1,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.8968\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"label\": \"Wind gust\",\n", " \"group\": \"Weather\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 94,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": 0.004722,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.001405,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.120256,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": 0.2867,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.1462,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.0686,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.0776,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.005019,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.01\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with more elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 0.8352,\n", " \"xMax\": 35.7408,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.6962\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"label\": \"Observed drift rate\",\n", " \"group\": \"Tracking\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 72,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": -0.000493,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.001631,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.166096,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": -0.2706,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.1027,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.0312,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.0715,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.02196,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.05\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with less elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 0,\n", " \"xMax\": 683.447,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.6486\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Moon separation\",\n", " \"group\": \"Sky conditions\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 47,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": 0.001313,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.001878,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.059309,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": 0.2451,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.1752,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.1172,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.0579,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.085724,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p = 0.086\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with more elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 13.7721,\n", " \"xMax\": 129.6292,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.6962\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"altitudeSpanDeg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Altitude span during session\",\n", " \"group\": \"Subject geometry\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 91,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": 0.005802,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.001916,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.102932,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": 0.2374,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.1084,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.053,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.0554,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.021674,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.05\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with more elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 0.0804,\n", " \"xMax\": 32.1888,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.6962\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"elapsedMinutes\",\n", " \"label\": \"Elapsed minutes\",\n", " \"group\": \"Equipment and capture\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 126,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": 0.000692,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.0027,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.062361,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": 0.239,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.3122,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.2572,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.055,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.002132,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.01\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with more elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 1,\n", " \"xMax\": 353.5071,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.8968\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"label\": \"Reported jitter RMS\",\n", " \"group\": \"Tracking\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 90,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": 0.00067,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.001841,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.13548,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": 0.2235,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.1132,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.0632,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.05,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.029464,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.05\",\n", " \"direction\": \"After age control, higher values align with more elapsed loss\",\n", " \"xMin\": 0,\n", " \"xMax\": 315.072,\n", " \"yMin\": 0,\n", " \"yMax\": 0.6962\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"key\": \"windSpeedKmhAvg\",\n", " \"label\": \"Wind speed\",\n", " \"group\": \"Weather\",\n", " \"response\": \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"control\": \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"n\": 94,\n", " \"available\": true,\n", " \"slope\": 0.014141,\n", " \"ageSlope\": 0.001514,\n", " \"intercept\": 0.120945,\n", " \"standardizedSlope\": 0.2179,\n", " \"modelR2\": 0.1133,\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\": 0.0686,\n", " \"incrementalR2\": 0.0447,\n", " \"pValue\": 0.034896,\n", " \"significanceLabel\": \"p < 0.05\",\n", " \"direction\": 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\"2026-06-07T07:25:38Z\",\n", " \"deviceModel\": \"Seestar S30\",\n", " \"deviceCode\": \"S30\",\n", " \"siteLatitudeDeg\": 40.6284,\n", " \"subCount\": 102,\n", " \"subLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"totalElapsedSeconds\": 3453.67,\n", " \"totalIntegrationSeconds\": 3060,\n", " \"elapsedMinutes\": 57.561167,\n", " \"integrationMinutes\": 51,\n", " \"integrationEfficiency\": 0.886014,\n", " \"captureEfficiency\": 0.886014,\n", " \"elapsedDropRate\": 0.113043,\n", " \"elapsedCapacitySubs\": 115,\n", " \"droppedSubEstimate\": 13,\n", " \"startingFocusPosition\": 1181,\n", " \"endingFocusPosition\": 1181,\n", " \"startAltitudeDeg\": 26.195347,\n", " \"endAltitudeDeg\": 31.579933,\n", " \"meanAltitudeDeg\": 28.88764,\n", " \"altitudeChangeDeg\": 5.384586,\n", " \"altitudeSpanDeg\": 5.384586,\n", " \"targetDeclinationDeg\": -14.972778,\n", " \"fitsTargetRaDeg\": 274.64166,\n", " \"fitsTargetDecDeg\": -14.972778,\n", " \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\": 0.211,\n", " \"reportedDriftRatePxPerMin\": 0.056,\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\": 8.753,\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsPx\": 2.341,\n", " \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\": null,\n", " \"observedDriftRatePxPerMin\": null,\n", " \"observedJitterRmsArcsec\": null,\n", " \"observedJitterRmsPx\": null,\n", " \"ircutOrLp\": \"LP\",\n", " \"additionalFilterUsed\": false,\n", " \"additionalFilterName\": \"\",\n", " \"filterLabel\": \"LP\",\n", " \"stackedRSnr\": 4.342117,\n", " \"stackedRCoverageFraction\": 0.093064,\n", " \"stackedGSnr\": 3.779597,\n", " \"stackedGCoverageFraction\": 0.100088,\n", " \"stackedBSnr\": 3.757851,\n", " \"stackedBCoverageFraction\": 0.103632,\n", " \"avgStackedSnr\": 3.959855,\n", " \"avgStackedCoverageFraction\": 0.098928,\n", " \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\": 6,\n", " \"humidityPercentAvg\": 95,\n", " \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\": 0.81551,\n", " \"windSpeedKmhAvg\": 1.7676,\n", " \"windGustKmhMax\": 13.593599,\n", " \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\": 20.54,\n", " \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\": 19.753826,\n", " \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\": 58.028236,\n", " \"deviceS30\": 1,\n", " \"targetM101\": 0,\n", " \"usesAdditionalFilter\": 0,\n", " \"latestObservationDate\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\": 1\n", " },\n", " {\n", " \"id\": \"historic-m81-2026-06-07-51\",\n", " \"dataset\": \"historic\",\n", " \"targetKey\": \"m81\",\n", " \"catalogId\": \"M81\",\n", " \"targetName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"commonName\": \"Bode's Galaxy\",\n", " \"imageMessierId\": null,\n", " \"date\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"sessionStartTime\": \"2026-06-08T01:19:33Z\",\n", " \"sessionEndTime\": \"2026-06-08T02:09:50Z\",\n", " \"astronomicalDarkStartTime\": \"2026-06-08T02:32:33Z\",\n", " \"astronomicalDawnTime\": \"2026-06-08T07:25:05Z\",\n", " \"deviceModel\": \"Seestar S30\",\n", " \"deviceCode\": \"S30\",\n", " \"siteLatitudeDeg\": 40.6284,\n", " \"subCount\": 88,\n", " \"subLengthSeconds\": 30,\n", " \"totalElapsedSeconds\": 3017.115,\n", " \"totalIntegrationSeconds\": 2640,\n", " \"elapsedMinutes\": 50.28525,\n", " \"integrationMinutes\": 44,\n", " \"integrationEfficiency\": 0.875008,\n", " \"captureEfficiency\": 0.875008,\n", " \"elapsedDropRate\": 0.12,\n", " \"elapsedCapacitySubs\": 100,\n", " \"droppedSubEstimate\": 12,\n", " \"startingFocusPosition\": 1177,\n", " \"endingFocusPosition\": 1177,\n", " \"startAltitudeDeg\": 50.809293,\n", " \"endAltitudeDeg\": 46.395188,\n", " \"meanAltitudeDeg\": 48.60224,\n", " \"altitudeChangeDeg\": -4.414105,\n", " \"altitudeSpanDeg\": 4.414105,\n", " \"targetDeclinationDeg\": 68.9725,\n", " \"fitsTargetRaDeg\": 149.262495,\n", " \"fitsTargetDecDeg\": 68.9725,\n", " \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\": 0.117,\n", " \"reportedDriftRatePxPerMin\": 0.031,\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\": 3.826,\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsPx\": 1.023,\n", " \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\": null,\n", " \"observedDriftRatePxPerMin\": null,\n", " \"observedJitterRmsArcsec\": null,\n", " \"observedJitterRmsPx\": null,\n", " \"ircutOrLp\": \"IRCUT\",\n", " \"additionalFilterUsed\": false,\n", " \"additionalFilterName\": \"\",\n", " \"filterLabel\": \"IRCUT\",\n", " \"stackedRSnr\": null,\n", " \"stackedRCoverageFraction\": null,\n", " \"stackedGSnr\": null,\n", " \"stackedGCoverageFraction\": null,\n", " \"stackedBSnr\": null,\n", " \"stackedBCoverageFraction\": null,\n", " \"avgStackedSnr\": null,\n", " \"avgStackedCoverageFraction\": null,\n", " \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\": 2,\n", " \"humidityPercentAvg\": 62.977994,\n", " \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\": 7.393059,\n", " \"windSpeedKmhAvg\": 2.778839,\n", " \"windGustKmhMax\": 18.2232,\n", " \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\": 20.54,\n", " \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\": 20.229176,\n", " \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\": null,\n", " \"deviceS30\": 1,\n", " \"targetM101\": 0,\n", " \"usesAdditionalFilter\": 0,\n", " \"latestObservationDate\": \"2026-06-07\",\n", " \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\": 0\n", " }\n", " ]\n", "}'''\n", "DATA = json.loads(DATA_JSON)\n", "\n", "rows = pd.DataFrame(DATA[\"rows\"])\n", "controlled_rows = pd.DataFrame(DATA.get(\"controlledRows\", []))\n", "coverage = pd.DataFrame(DATA[\"coverage\"])\n", "predictors = pd.DataFrame(DATA[\"predictorScreens\"])\n", "feature_importance = pd.DataFrame(DATA.get(\"featureImportance\", {}).get(\"features\", []))\n", "\n", "numeric_columns = [\n", " \"subCount\",\n", " \"subLengthSeconds\",\n", " \"totalElapsedSeconds\",\n", " \"totalIntegrationSeconds\",\n", " \"integrationEfficiency\",\n", " \"elapsedMinutes\",\n", " \"integrationMinutes\",\n", " \"captureEfficiency\",\n", " \"elapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"elapsedCapacitySubs\",\n", " \"droppedSubEstimate\",\n", " \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\",\n", " \"startAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"endAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"meanAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"altitudeSpanDeg\",\n", " \"targetDeclinationDeg\",\n", " \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"observedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"stackedRSnr\",\n", " \"stackedRCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"stackedGSnr\",\n", " \"stackedGCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"stackedBSnr\",\n", " \"stackedBCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"avgStackedSnr\",\n", " \"avgStackedCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\",\n", " \"humidityPercentAvg\",\n", " \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\",\n", " \"windSpeedKmhAvg\",\n", " \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\",\n", " \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\",\n", " \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\",\n", "]\n", "\n", "for frame in [rows, controlled_rows]:\n", " for column in numeric_columns:\n", " if column in frame.columns:\n", " frame[column] = pd.to_numeric(frame[column], errors=\"coerce\")\n", "\n", "for frame in [rows, controlled_rows]:\n", " if \"elapsedDropRate\" in frame.columns:\n", " frame[\"elapsedDropRatePercent\"] = frame[\"elapsedDropRate\"] * 100\n", " if \"captureEfficiency\" in frame.columns:\n", " frame[\"captureEfficiencyPercent\"] = frame[\"captureEfficiency\"] * 100\n", " if \"date\" in frame.columns:\n", " frame[\"date\"] = pd.to_datetime(frame[\"date\"], errors=\"coerce\")\n", "\n", "print(f\"Historic rows: {len(rows)}\")\n", "print(f\"Controlled rows: {len(controlled_rows)}\")\n", "print(f\"Targets: {', '.join(sorted(rows['catalogId'].dropna().unique()))}\")\n", "print(f\"Date range: {rows['date'].min().date()} to {rows['date'].max().date()}\")" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Dataset Summary" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "summary = pd.Series(DATA[\"summary\"]).to_frame(\"value\")\n", "display(summary)\n", "\n", "target_summary = pd.DataFrame(DATA[\"targetSummaries\"])\n", "display(target_summary[[\n", " \"group\",\n", " \"rowCount\",\n", " \"dateStart\",\n", " \"dateEnd\",\n", " \"capturedSubs\",\n", " \"integrationHours\",\n", " \"medianElapsedDropRate\",\n", " \"medianAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"medianReportedDriftArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"medianReportedJitterArcsec\",\n", "]])" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Controlled Run Slice\n", "\n", "When present, `controlled_rows` is kept separate from the historic regression rows. It is intended for the one-night, four-target, two-telescope protocol view: compare accepted integration against elapsed time, then inspect altitude, drift, jitter, weather, and SNR target-by-target." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "if controlled_rows.empty:\n", " print(\"No controlled run rows were included in this generated notebook.\")\n", "else:\n", " controlled_summary = pd.Series(DATA.get(\"controlledSummary\", {})).to_frame(\"value\")\n", " display(controlled_summary)\n", "\n", " controlled_view_columns = [\n", " \"deviceCode\",\n", " \"catalogId\",\n", " \"date\",\n", " \"elapsedMinutes\",\n", " \"integrationMinutes\",\n", " \"elapsedDropRatePercent\",\n", " \"meanAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"avgStackedSnr\",\n", " \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\",\n", " \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\",\n", " ]\n", " display(\n", " controlled_rows[controlled_view_columns]\n", " .sort_values([\"deviceCode\", \"catalogId\"])\n", " .round(3)\n", " )\n", "\n", " plot_df = controlled_rows.sort_values([\"deviceCode\", \"catalogId\"]).copy()\n", " plot_df[\"label\"] = plot_df[\"deviceCode\"] + \" \" + plot_df[\"catalogId\"]\n", " plot_df[\"lostMinutes\"] = (plot_df[\"elapsedMinutes\"] - plot_df[\"integrationMinutes\"]).clip(lower=0)\n", "\n", " fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 4.8))\n", " ax.barh(plot_df[\"label\"], plot_df[\"integrationMinutes\"], label=\"Integrated\", color=\"#4fd18a\")\n", " ax.barh(plot_df[\"label\"], plot_df[\"lostMinutes\"], left=plot_df[\"integrationMinutes\"], label=\"Dropped or overhead\", color=\"#ffb357\")\n", " ax.set_xlabel(\"Minutes\")\n", " ax.set_title(\"Controlled run: elapsed duration vs accepted integration\")\n", " ax.grid(axis=\"x\", alpha=0.25)\n", " ax.legend()\n", " plt.tight_layout()\n", "\n", " fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7, 4.8))\n", " for device, group in controlled_rows.dropna(subset=[\"meanAltitudeDeg\", \"elapsedDropRatePercent\"]).groupby(\"deviceCode\"):\n", " ax.scatter(group[\"meanAltitudeDeg\"], group[\"elapsedDropRatePercent\"], label=device, alpha=0.85)\n", " for _, row in group.iterrows():\n", " ax.annotate(row[\"catalogId\"], (row[\"meanAltitudeDeg\"], row[\"elapsedDropRatePercent\"]), xytext=(4, 4), textcoords=\"offset points\", fontsize=8)\n", " ax.set_xlabel(\"Mean altitude (deg)\")\n", " ax.set_ylabel(\"Elapsed loss proxy (%)\")\n", " ax.set_title(\"Controlled run: altitude vs frame-drop proxy\")\n", " ax.grid(alpha=0.25)\n", " ax.legend()\n", " plt.tight_layout()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Field Coverage\n", "\n", "The historic export does not populate every predictor for every row. The current weather-rich export adds local weather, sky-brightness, moon-separation, and stacked-image SNR fields for many recent rows." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "coverage_view = coverage.assign(percent_display=(coverage[\"percent\"] * 100).round(1))\n", "display(coverage_view[[\"label\", \"count\", \"total\", \"percent_display\"]])\n", "\n", "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 5))\n", "coverage_plot = coverage_view.sort_values(\"percent_display\")\n", "ax.barh(coverage_plot[\"label\"], coverage_plot[\"percent_display\"])\n", "ax.set_xlabel(\"Rows populated (%)\")\n", "ax.set_title(\"Field coverage\")\n", "ax.grid(axis=\"x\", alpha=0.25)\n", "plt.tight_layout()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Image Quality and Sky Conditions\n", "\n", "The export includes stacked-image SNR and sky-condition fields. These are useful as candidate outcomes for later models about image quality, and as context for dropped-frame interpretation." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "quality_columns = [\n", " \"catalogId\",\n", " \"date\",\n", " \"avgStackedSnr\",\n", " \"avgStackedCoverageFraction\",\n", " \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\",\n", " \"humidityPercentAvg\",\n", " \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\",\n", " \"windSpeedKmhAvg\",\n", " \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\",\n", " \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\",\n", " \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\",\n", "]\n", "\n", "display(rows[quality_columns].sort_values([\"date\", \"catalogId\"], ascending=[False, True]).head(20))\n", "\n", "snr_summary = rows.groupby(\"catalogId\", dropna=False).agg(\n", " rows=(\"avgStackedSnr\", \"size\"),\n", " snr_rows=(\"avgStackedSnr\", \"count\"),\n", " median_snr=(\"avgStackedSnr\", \"median\"),\n", " median_cloud=(\"cloudCoverPercentAvg\", \"median\"),\n", " median_site_sky=(\"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\", \"median\"),\n", ").reset_index()\n", "display(snr_summary)\n", "\n", "plot_df = rows.dropna(subset=[\"avgStackedSnr\", \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\"])\n", "if len(plot_df):\n", " fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 5))\n", " for target, group in plot_df.groupby(\"catalogId\"):\n", " ax.scatter(group[\"cloudCoverPercentAvg\"], group[\"avgStackedSnr\"], label=target, alpha=0.75)\n", " ax.set_xlabel(\"Cloud cover (%)\")\n", " ax.set_ylabel(\"Average stacked SNR\")\n", " ax.set_title(\"Stacked SNR vs cloud cover\")\n", " ax.grid(alpha=0.25)\n", " ax.legend()\n", " plt.tight_layout()\n", "else:\n", " print(\"No rows currently have both avgStackedSnr and cloudCoverPercentAvg.\")" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Age-Controlled Predictor Screen\n", "\n", "This table uses the precomputed model results from the generated research data. `incrementalR2` is the amount of extra variance explained by the predictor after the age control is already in the model." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "predictor_view = (\n", " predictors[predictors[\"available\"]]\n", " .sort_values(\"incrementalR2\", ascending=False)\n", " [[\n", " \"group\",\n", " \"label\",\n", " \"n\",\n", " \"standardizedSlope\",\n", " \"incrementalR2\",\n", " \"modelR2\",\n", " \"ageOnlyR2\",\n", " \"pValue\",\n", " \"significanceLabel\",\n", " ]]\n", ")\n", "display(predictor_view)\n", "\n", "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 5))\n", "plot_rows = predictor_view.head(10).iloc[::-1]\n", "colors = [\"#ffb357\" if value >= 0 else \"#7debff\" for value in plot_rows[\"standardizedSlope\"]]\n", "ax.barh(plot_rows[\"label\"], plot_rows[\"incrementalR2\"], color=colors)\n", "ax.set_xlabel(\"Incremental R² after age control\")\n", "ax.set_title(\"Top age-controlled predictors\")\n", "ax.grid(axis=\"x\", alpha=0.25)\n", "plt.tight_layout()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Feature Contribution Screen\n", "\n", "This is the Shapley-like view used on the public page. It fits one multivariate ridge model with `daysBeforeLatestObservation` included as a control column, then shuffles each research feature one at a time. Larger permutation loss means the fitted model relied more on that feature.\n", "\n", "Important caveat: correlated predictors split or mask credit, and sparse fields are median-imputed so the historic rows can stay in one comparable model." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "if feature_importance.empty:\n", " print(\"No feature-importance rows were generated.\")\n", "else:\n", " contribution_view = (\n", " feature_importance\n", " .sort_values(\"relativeShare\", ascending=False)\n", " [[\n", " \"group\",\n", " \"label\",\n", " \"n\",\n", " \"imputedCount\",\n", " \"standardizedCoefficient\",\n", " \"mseIncrease\",\n", " \"r2Loss\",\n", " \"relativeShare\",\n", " \"direction\",\n", " ]]\n", " )\n", " display(contribution_view)\n", "\n", " fig_height = max(5.5, len(contribution_view) * 0.32 + 1.3)\n", " fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, fig_height))\n", " plot_rows = contribution_view.iloc[::-1].copy()\n", " plot_rows[\"share_percent\"] = plot_rows[\"relativeShare\"] * 100\n", " colors = [\"#ffb357\" if value >= 0 else \"#7debff\" for value in plot_rows[\"standardizedCoefficient\"]]\n", " ax.barh(plot_rows[\"label\"], plot_rows[\"share_percent\"], color=colors)\n", " ax.set_xlabel(\"Share of positive permutation loss (%)\")\n", " ax.set_title(\"Shapley-like feature contribution\")\n", " ax.grid(axis=\"x\", alpha=0.25)\n", " plt.tight_layout()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Refit the Age-Controlled Models\n", "\n", "The cell below refits `elapsedDropRate ~ daysBeforeLatestObservation + predictor` with statsmodels when available. This lets you verify and extend the model locally." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "def refit_age_controlled_models(df, response=\"elapsedDropRate\"):\n", " if sm is None:\n", " raise RuntimeError(\"statsmodels is not installed. Run %pip install statsmodels and retry.\")\n", "\n", " predictor_fields = [\n", " \"meanAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"startAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"endAltitudeDeg\",\n", " \"altitudeSpanDeg\",\n", " \"targetDeclinationDeg\",\n", " \"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\",\n", " \"observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\",\n", " \"subLengthSeconds\",\n", " \"elapsedMinutes\",\n", " \"deviceS30\",\n", " \"usesAdditionalFilter\",\n", " \"cloudCoverPercentAvg\",\n", " \"humidityPercentAvg\",\n", " \"dewPointSpreadCAvg\",\n", " \"windSpeedKmhAvg\",\n", " \"windGustKmhMax\",\n", " \"siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2\",\n", " \"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\",\n", " \"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\",\n", " ]\n", "\n", " results = []\n", " for field in predictor_fields:\n", " needed = [response, \"daysBeforeLatestObservation\", field]\n", " model_df = df[needed].dropna()\n", " if len(model_df) < 4 or model_df[field].nunique() < 2:\n", " continue\n", "\n", " y = model_df[response]\n", " x = sm.add_constant(model_df[[\"daysBeforeLatestObservation\", field]])\n", " model = sm.OLS(y, x).fit()\n", " age_only = sm.OLS(y, sm.add_constant(model_df[[\"daysBeforeLatestObservation\"]])).fit()\n", "\n", " results.append({\n", " \"field\": field,\n", " \"n\": int(model.nobs),\n", " \"coef\": model.params[field],\n", " \"p_value\": model.pvalues[field],\n", " \"model_r2\": model.rsquared,\n", " \"age_only_r2\": age_only.rsquared,\n", " \"incremental_r2\": max(0, model.rsquared - age_only.rsquared),\n", " })\n", "\n", " return pd.DataFrame(results).sort_values(\"incremental_r2\", ascending=False)\n", "\n", "if sm is None:\n", " print(\"statsmodels is not installed. Run %pip install statsmodels to refit the OLS models.\")\n", "else:\n", " refit_results = refit_age_controlled_models(rows)\n", " display(refit_results)" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Scatter Views\n", "\n", "These are raw visual context plots. The predictor screen above is the age-controlled regression view." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "def scatter_metric(x, xlabel, title):\n", " plot_df = rows.dropna(subset=[x, \"elapsedDropRatePercent\"])\n", " fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 5))\n", " for target, group in plot_df.groupby(\"catalogId\"):\n", " ax.scatter(group[x], group[\"elapsedDropRatePercent\"], label=target, alpha=0.75)\n", " ax.set_xlabel(xlabel)\n", " ax.set_ylabel(\"Elapsed loss proxy (%)\")\n", " ax.set_title(title)\n", " ax.grid(alpha=0.25)\n", " ax.legend()\n", " plt.tight_layout()\n", "\n", "scatter_metric(\"meanAltitudeDeg\", \"Mean altitude (deg)\", \"Dropped-frame proxy vs altitude\")\n", "scatter_metric(\"reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin\", \"Reported drift (arcsec/min)\", \"Dropped-frame proxy vs reported drift\")\n", "scatter_metric(\"reportedJitterRmsArcsec\", \"Reported jitter RMS (arcsec)\", \"Dropped-frame proxy vs reported jitter\")\n", "scatter_metric(\"moonTargetSeparationDegAvg\", \"Moon-target separation (deg)\", \"Dropped-frame proxy vs moon separation\")\n", "scatter_metric(\"modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg\", \"Modeled sky brightness (mag/arcsec2)\", \"Dropped-frame proxy vs modeled sky brightness\")" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Data Dictionary\n", "\n", "| Field | Meaning |\n", "|---|---|\n", "| `date` | Session date assigned to the observation export row. |\n", "| `daysBeforeLatestObservation` | Derived control variable. Zero is the newest observation in this export; larger values are older sessions. Used as a regression control for learning, tripod, and firmware era effects. |\n", "| `subCount` | Number of accepted sub-exposures recorded for the session. |\n", "| `subLengthSeconds` | Exposure duration for each sub, in seconds. |\n", "| `totalElapsedSeconds` | Wall-clock session duration between exported start and end timestamps. |\n", "| `totalIntegrationSeconds` | Captured subs multiplied by sub length. Useful exposure time, not total elapsed time. |\n", "| `integrationEfficiency` | AstroGuide's exported integration efficiency for the session window. |\n", "| `elapsedDropRate` | Derived historic loss proxy: dropped estimate divided by elapsed capacity. |\n", "| `meanAltitudeDeg` | Derived midpoint of start and end altitude. |\n", "| `reportedDriftRateArcsecPerMin` | AstroGuide frame-evaluation metric: RA and Dec position trends are fit over time, combined into radial drift, and reported in arcseconds per minute. |\n", "| `reportedJitterRmsArcsec` | AstroGuide frame-evaluation metric: RMS residual movement around the fitted RA/Dec drift line, in arcseconds. It represents wobble after removing steady drift. |\n", "| `observedDriftRateArcsecPerMin` | Optional deeper observed-drift analysis when source frames or derived analysis assets are available. |\n", "| `avgStackedSnr` | Mean of the available red, green, and blue stacked-image SNR values. |\n", "| `avgStackedCoverageFraction` | Mean fractional coverage for the stacked channel metrics. |\n", "| `cloudCoverPercentAvg`, `humidityPercentAvg`, `dewPointSpreadCAvg`, `windSpeedKmhAvg`, `windGustKmhMax` | Weather sample aggregates across the session window when available. |\n", "| `siteSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2`, `modeledSkyBrightnessMagPerArcsec2Avg` | Estimated and modeled sky brightness in magnitudes per square arcsecond. |\n", "| `moonTargetSeparationDegAvg` | Average angular separation between the Moon and target, in degrees. |\n", "| `incrementalR2` | Additional variance explained by a predictor after the age control is already in the model. |\n", "| `standardizedSlope` | Direction and relative size of the predictor effect after controlling for observation age. |\n", "| `relativeShare` | Share of positive permutation loss from the Shapley-like multivariate contribution screen. |\n", "| `mseIncrease`, `r2Loss` | How much model error rises when a feature is shuffled while age and the other features remain in place. |\n", "| `imputedCount` | Number of rows where a feature was missing and median-imputed for the contribution screen. |" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Raw Rows" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "display(rows)" ] } ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { "display_name": "Python 3", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, "language_info": { "name": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3" } }, "nbformat": 4, "nbformat_minor": 5 }